The Numbers Don?t Lie

Senator Barack Obama is down for the count – but CNN's Wolf Blitzer does not know it!

Feb. 6, 2008 – Geneva (apj.us) – The hoax being perpetrated on the American people by the greed-filled mainstream media is enough to make one nauseous – especially in this time of national disgrace where the mission for most Americans is to get rid of George W. Bush and everything he represents and replace him with a Democrat, who will hopefully prove to be mentally balanced and possessing true compassion – not just a slogan advertising same.

I watched yesterday’s primaries expecting pretty much the result we all found this morning.

But when I turned on my television to see what CNN, NBC, ABC, and CBS were saying, I almost had a conniption.

The celebri-pundit talking heads and so-called “political analysts” – particularly Wolf Blitzer and Bill Schneider – should be fired immediately for the buffalo patties they are spreading about Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and the Republican candidates.

Almost everything they say is a lie.

Only one commentator – largely marginalized when not being outright ignored by Blitzer – told even half the truth: the numbers for Obama were misleading and did not tell the story.

They certainly did not – not the way Blitzer and the rest of the crews have spun it – to keep the suspense moving and ad revenues increasing.

So here is the true story. First, click here to pull up a chart that compiles comprehensive Super Tuesday numbers.

Next, let’s get the Republicans results out of the way. Unless John McCain croaks between now and November, he is the nominee for the GOP. Neither Huckabee nor Romney has even a scintilla of a chance.

So that’s that.

The only things stopping McCain now are the Limbaugh radio screamers (who are losing their influence precipitously) and the Born-again Christianist (circular) firing squad – and they’re down to two or three dozen people.

Now for the Democrat race.

Senator Barack Obama failed, in almost every possible way, to do what he had to do yesterday to win the Democrat nomination for president.

Here are the facts:

  1. Out of all the “races” he won, Obama tallied six caucuses to his credit. The trouble is that caucuses mean about zero in elective politics. This is how he got away with staying in the Democrat race to begin with. It started with Iowa. Remember: caucuses lean strongly toward activists. Few in their right mind run out on a cold night to “vote” when their vote doesn’t even count or is counted. The only thing winning a caucus proves is that the candidate's ground operation – if they care – can move bodies from one place to another. It has nothing to do with the popularity of the candidate unless he or she is so hated that even the activists won’t budge for him.

  2. The states Obama did win – where people actually voted – are of lesser importance in the long run, not only in terms of the Democrat nomination, but more importantly the November elections, where the Democrat must beat the Republican nominee. In November, about 50% of registered voters will turn out to vote for president. Perhaps even more than 50% will show up at the polls because of the general loathing for Republicans, the Iraq war, and the weak, erratic state of the economy. Whichever the turnout, the ratios will stay the same.
  3. So let us look at this primary as if it had been a true election: if it had been multi-state race between Obama and Hillary Clinton in 22 states, Clinton would have defeated Obama: 19 million votes for Clinton vs. 7.6 million for Obama if only 52% of the registered voters turned out and were split by party registration with averages in registration at 50.6 for the GOP vs. 49.4 DEM at last count.

    [The first totals you see on the chart are those showing what would happen if every registered voter turned out to vote. Moving down the chart however the ratios are the same – 52.2 percent turn out, and 51-49 registration – GOP/DEM]

  4. What is even more laughable is that the talking heads in television are telling you that Clinton and Obama are “almost” neck and neck in delegate counts. This is also not true. The rules are very complex – but let me tell you something –the way it works is that they one who proves to be the “vote getter” all things being equal – is the one who gets the nod from the super-delegates and eventually all the other delegates. That’s how is truly works – not through some mystical or arcane set of rules. These rules go down the drain after the first vote on the floor of the conventions.
  5. The most important thing these numbers show is just how fragile Senator Obama is – even in the most liberal states and in states with the largest populations. Granted he took his own state – Illinois, but again in a primary where whites did not turn out in ratio to their registration numbers. Illinois is a state with one big problem when it comes to bigotry. Ask the former Black mayor of Chicago. In a race against McCain – Illinois democrats – many of them – would cross over and vote for McCain because he is left of center in his own party. “Grudgingly acceptable to bigoted Democrats,” I might say.

There you have it. Be an informed surveyor of the political world. Don’t listen to Wolf Blitzer and his crowd of talking parrots who brought you – gleefully – the war in Iraq and worse. They brought you George W. Bush as well. Remember that.

They are incompetent.


Jeff Koopersmith is a political consultant, opinion research authority, policy analyst, and self-described "renegade lobbyist." He lives in Philadelphia, Washington and Geneva.

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